Some Statistical Research That Will Shock and Awe You

Anyone who watched yesterday's Wild Card Game turned Holiday Bowl between Green Bay and Arizona would be surprised to learn that Green Bay's defense was the #2 ranked overall defense in the NFL during the 2009 regular season.

Or maybe you wouldn't be surprised by that stat, given that the media trotted it out there with regularity when previewing the game.

How do they do those rankings? By counting the number of players who have hair spilling out from under their helmets? (In that case, Green Bay would be the #1 defense).

No, the official stat in determining "overall defense" in the NFL is yards per game by the opponent. Green Bay gave up an average of 284.4 yards per game, which is impressive.

However, if you dig a little deeper into the numbers, it's pretty clear that these stats are skewed pretty heavily by a couple of dominating defensive efforts (or pathetic offensive efforts, depending upon your point of view).

Since the NFL is a quarterback's league, I thought it made the most sense to divide the season between opponents with Pro Bowl quarterbacks (i.e. QBs who have made a Pro Bowl) and opponents with non Pro Bowl quarterbacks. This isn't perfect, because, for example, it puts Seattle in the Pro Bowl QB category and Baltimore in the non Pro Bowl QB camp, but it still works in proving the point.

Green Bay played 8 games against Pro Bowl QBs: Jay Cutler (2), Carson Palmer, Brett Favre (2), Tony Romo, Ben Roethelisberger, and Matt Hasselbeck.

Green Bay played 8 games against non Pro Bowl QBs: Rams QB, Detroit QB (2), Cleveland QB, Tampa QB, San Francisco QB, Baltimore QB, and Arizona QB (in a meaningless game in which Warner hardly played).

Yards per game against Pro Bowl QBs: 340 yards

Yards per game against non Pro Bowl QBs: 229 yards

Included in the non Pro Bowl QB games were a couple of masterful offensive performances by Detroit (149 yards gained in the game at Green Bay) and Cleveland (139 yards gained).

If you want to look at points per game, Green Bay gave up almost 23 ppg against Pro Bowl QBs and just under 15 ppg against non Pro Bowl QBs.

So what the hell does this prove? Jeez, Ted, you're telling me that Green Bay's defense has a harder time stopping offenses with competent quarterbacks than incompetent ones? How surprising! Time to submit this sucker to the Blog Post Hall of Fame!

No, all I am saying is that sometimes statistics like "#2 overall defense" can be misleading, especially if you are dealing with a small 16-game sample size. Was Green Bay's defense better this year under the 3-4 as compared to the horrible defense of the year before? Absolutely yes. They caused a ton of turnovers, were dominant at times, and seemed to have a clue for much of the year.

Does Green Bay's defense have a lot of work to do? Absolutely yes. The injury to Al Harris didn't help (in that it caused Jarret Bush to see the field again) but you're going to have an injury to deal with now and then. It's pretty clear that this defense is very vulnerable against the more elite quarterbacks in the league...it's just lucky that Green Bay didn't have to face more of them this year.

Interesting Sports Weekend

Let's review the weekend in sports:

1. Brewers trade JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez. While Gomez's offensive numbers in the majors concern me (let's get that career OBP over .300 next year, fella) at least he has some tools and plays a fantastic defensive CF. I don't hate this trade like some do. Seriously, Hardy isn't very good. What did people expect to get back?

2. Badgers slip by Indiana. Clay/Ball looked good. So did Toon. Badgers secondary did not. Did IU's QB throw an incompletion? Chris Borland might be my new favorite Badger. Can he play corner?

3. Iowa lost to Northwestern. At home. This was just beautiful. Hawkeye fans currently feel like I felt when Minnesota beat Wisconsin in 1993. That is, they feel awful.

4. Navy beats Notre Dame. I think every head football coach at Notre Dame should have an automatic termination clause in his contract if he loses to Navy twice. What, exactly, has Charlie Weis done to deserve to continue as coach? Not that I'm complaining, mind you - I love it when Notre Dame loses to the service academies.

5. Bucks destroy the Knicks. With Murdock blowing kisses to him from the stands, Jodie Meeks has his coming-out party against the Knicks. No, that doesn't mean that he succumbed to Murdock's forward advances - it means that he scored a bunch of points. The Knicks are horrid.

6. 0-7 Bucs beat the Packers. WTF? LOL? Huh? For some reason, nobody started Tampa's D/ST in my fantasy football league this week. I guess nobody saw the two touchdowns coming. Does this finally convince all of the Ted/McCarthy backers that these two fools should be run out of town on a rail? News flash! 2007 was a fluke, engineered by a different QB and aided by lots of good breaks. The reality is that this team isn't very talented, hasn't been very talented since Ted came to town, and it sure as hell isn't well-coached. But it sure is young.

Dom Capers - Worth Every Penny

When the Packers kicked their entire defensive coaching staff to the curb and hired Dom Capers, there was much discussion. "It's a panic move by McCarthey," and "we don't have the players to run a 3-4" were popular comments. We're only through week 6, but I'll break down the rankings. And, yes, I do realize shutting out the pathetic Lions will boost those stats. But seeing as how there's about 10 dog teams in the league (Rams, Browns, Bucs, Raiders, Redskins, Lions, Bills, Jags, etc...), who hasen't played at least two of them? Thus far, Green Bay's played three good teams (Bears, Bengals, Vikings) and two of the Shits (Rams, Lions).

Green Bay 2008 Defense (Per Game)

Total Yards Allowed: 334.3 (Ranked 20th)
Rushing Yards Allowed: 131.6 (26th)
Passing Yards Allowed: 202.8 (12th)
Points Allowed: 23.8 (22nd)

Here's this years rankings. And keep in mind, Dom's scheme is supposedly very difficult to learn, and some guys (Kampman, Matthews) are just starting to get into a groove.

Green Bay 2009 Defense (Per Game)

Total Yards Allowed: 298.0 (Ranked 8th)
Rushing Yards Allowed: 105.4 (16th)
Passing Yards Allowed: 192.6 (10th)
Points Allowed: 18.6 (9th)

The remaining schedule offeres some good (Arizona, Minnesota, Dallas, Pitt) and bad (Tampa, Cleveland, Detroit) offenses - these numbers are sure to change week to week. But for anyone to say right now that making wholesale defensive coaching/scheme changes hasn't been worth it - they're just wrong.

Crystal Ball

Scott Wells gets pushed backwards on every play, Percy Harvin makes a big play, Peterson runs like typical Peterson, Packers make enough plays to stay in the ballgame, Crosby misses a 53 yarder to tie the game, BrettFavre gets all the credit.

Vikings 26, Packers 23

This Doesn't Make Sense to Me, Though I'm No Offensive Guru

Some interesting stuff coming from Green Bay today:

The tackles, with Barbre and Colledge both struggling, would seem to be a major source of concern Sunday. McCarthy discussed the offensive line today and his thoughts on keeping quarterback Aaron Rodgers upright Sunday against St. Louis, in order to give him the time he needs to spot receivers downfield.

"We're going to do some different things with our protections in addition to executing better," McCarthy said. "You might see us keep our backs in to help chip on the ends. And the tight end. And the receivers will be more of an emphasis in pass protection. In fact, we might hold everybody back there when Aaron drops back, in order to give him the 10 seconds he needs to distribute the football."

Link

Flynn > Rodgers?

I like Matt Flynn. NCAA title, brings a little energy...I think he can have a nice career as a solid NFL backup. Jim Sorgi, if you will. That said, this is pretty ridiculous. Actually, really ridiculous (yahoo sports):

Some evaluators are even convinced backup Matt Flynn has as a brighter future than Rodgers, having shown great ball placement in the preseason and much better escapability, which is more valued behind a line playing as poorly as the Packers’. If Rodgers should go down, as he has had a tendency to do early in his career, it could be a blessing in disguise.

A blessing in disguise? I'm not saying Rodgers is on Peyton Manning's level, but come on??

U-G-L-Y, You ain't got no alibi you ugly, hey, hey...

Personally, it was a terrible football weekend for Mr Fitz-Hume. The worst in some time:

- The Packers got embarrassed. In not one, not two, but in all 3 phases of football. Didn't help that I was at Curly sitting right in front of the most obnoxious Bengals fans in history. He did laugh after Chris Henry scored and I yelled "Shouldn't he be in jail??" A good criminal joke regarding the Bengals always works - even if your team is playing like shit.

- The Bears beat the Steelers.

- Notre Dame pulled out a victory

- BYU got destroyed

- Florida didn't beat Lane Kiffin by 50.

All-in-all a poor football weekend. But, hey, my fantasy team won!

Oh, and while at Lambeau I noticed two changes from last year at this time - in the stands, at least.

Number of Favre jersey's last year: 16,729
Number of Favre jersey's this year: 8

Number of Brewers hats/shirts last year: 16,729
Number of Brewers hats/shirts this year: 0

At least somethings have changed in Lambeau this year.

Jamon Meredith

The rookie from South Carolina was cut and added to the practice squad during final roster cut downs. That's where he remains. Yet, the Journal Sentinel mentions in its "In Case You Missed It" section here from the Bengals game yesterday, that:

Knowing Daryn Colledge was ailing with a foot injury, the Packers kept rookie left tackle Jamon Meredith active, figuring that if starter Chad Clifton and Colledge got hurt, they would need an emergency left tackle.

Huh.

Packers D Doing Its Best Baylor Impression

For those of you who were asking whether the Packers defense was that good, or rather was the Bears offense that bad, I think I'm leaning towards the latter after today.

Cedric Benson? Really? Nice.